The public reaction to the record heat and accelerated ice melt in the Arctic and Greenland is overwhelmingly negative, driven by a deep sense of concern about the consequences of climate change. Many express despair and urgency, highlighting potential tipping points and advocating for immediate action against contributing factors like fossil fuel use. There is a substantial divide between those alarmed by the climate data and skeptics who attribute these changes to natural cycles. Skepticism regarding the accuracy of climate data is present but overshadowed by general frustration over inadequate political response and disbelief in meaningful change.

Fossil Fuel Industries

Governments

Climate Scientists

When your entire game is based on models with limited/faulty data, this is what you get.

The planet is far more complicated than 150 years of recorded data makes it out to be.

Savant_Guarde

&gt;Whenever “experts are shocked” they usually have marginalized or ignored altogether factors wrongly assumed to have no influence over their hypotheses, theories or beliefs.

&gt;Now scientists have encountered more “shocks” as polar sea ice is refusing to behave as expected. Since September 1, 2024, an astonishing 579 billion tons of fresh snow and ice have blanketed the Greenland ice sheet, marking the most significant accumulation for that date in at least eight years—far surpassing the 1981-2010 average.

logicalprogressive

Winter shocked climate scientist.  This is dumb.

riplan1911

It's crazy. This news will actually upset a lot of redditors.

OlGusnCuss

The scientists seem to get shocked a lot for settled science

duncan1961

"The overall increase of sea level since the mid 19th century and the rising concentrations 
of atmospheric CO2 have suggested a causal relation. Figure 4.1 illustrates the problem 
with attributing long-term sea level rise to manmade global warming associated with CO2
emissions. This figure shows that global sea levels were rising steadily long before fossil fuel emissions became substantial. Since CO2 emissions from fossil fuels did not become 
substantially large until after 1950, understanding the causes of recent sea level rise is 
clearly more complex than a naïve attribution to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2."

Judith Curry 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/27/special-report-on-sea-level-rise/

cardsfan4lyfe67

Come on, we can do better than this. Just looking at the data from NASA shows that the first couple of months of 2025 were the worst on record and afterwards it somewhat rebounded to regular levels in the last decade.


We can be skeptics without insinuating things that are just nonsense.

WaitStock9971

Interesting! Apparently el Nino can have a moderating effect on ice loss on Greenland.  [Https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00329-x](Https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00329-x)

Partly because of it, arctic ice extent has been relatively stable since 2010 - as your article confirms.  
[https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/?intent=121](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/?intent=121)

Despite arctic sea ice extent being relatively stable, Greenland is still melting and contributing to sea level rise. Especially its western side is losing mass.  
[https://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/mass-and-height-change/](https://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/mass-and-height-change/)

Ytsen

I used the authors source and pulled the dates for the min and max northern hemisphere sea ice extents for each month. I don't think we're seeing any kind of 'turn around' in sea ice as the author seems to suggest. 


    Month       Min   Min Date     Year   Max   Max Date     Year  
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    January     12.4  2025-01-04   2025   15.9  1979-01-30   1979  
    February    13.4  2025-02-06   2025   16.6  1979-02-25   1979  
    March       13.9  2025-03-01   2025   16.6  1979-03-01   1979  
    April       12.9  2016-04-30   2016   15.9  1982-04-02   1982  
    May         11.1  2016-05-31   2016   14.8  1982-05-02   1982  
    June        9.2   2010-06-29   2010   13.1  1982-06-01   1982  
    July        6.0   2020-07-31   2020   11.6  1979-07-01   1979  
    August      3.6   2012-08-31   2012   9.2   1983-08-01   1983  
    September   3.3   2012-09-16   2012   8.2   1996-09-27   1996  
    October     4.1   2012-10-01   2012   10.6  1982-10-31   1982  
    November    7.2   2016-11-01   2016   12.7  1982-11-30   1982  
    December    10.2  2016-12-01   2016   14.6  1978-12-31   1978

punchthemeat




The following submission statement was provided by /u/Edgar_Jacobs:

---

I'm not sure how much difference the complete disappearance of the North Polar icecap will make at this point. Ice gets as cold as the environment in which it froze, and there's a lot of relatively warm slush up top at the moment, with hugely decreased albedo. What I mean to say is, open water or not, we're clearly screwed either way.

---

 Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1eto7e4/north_polar_icecap_has_turned_to_slush/lieih3x/

StatementBot

I teach science in the US and one of my favorite end of the year projects is to have students record data about the extent of arctic sea ice, from every September, from 1979 to the present day. Then, they graph it and place a line of best fit. 

Without fail, one or two kids really latch on to it and ask some really great questions. Conservative estimates tell us that by ~2060 the sea ice will totally melt every summer. It’ll likely be closer to 2040 as the trends we see are accelerating. So definitely in my millennial lifetime and easily in my students’ young-middle aged adulthood.

VenomBars4

[deleted]

Fox_Mortus

Rising_Thunderbirds

I wrote a paper on this (big surprise).

[048](https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/the-crisis-report-48) - Understanding the Global Climate System isn't as hard as you think. We have most of the pieces to "SEE" it clearly now.

ENERGY from the SUN is captured by the Earth in its annual orbit. Eighty percent of this ENERGY is captured along the equatorial zone. Because of the Earth’s tilted axial alignment with the SUN, both of the Earth’s polar zones exit in states of permanent ENERGY deficit.

**This permanent ENERGY IMBALANCE between the HOT EQUATORIAL ZONE and the COLD POLAR ZONES results in a CONSTANT flow of HEAT ENERGY from the equator to the poles using the oceans and the atmosphere. This FLOW of ENERGY is what we perceive as “weather”. The long-term state of the ENERGY IMBALANCE between the equator and the poles is what we perceive as “climate”.**

**Everything else is details.**

# Here's an example of how to apply this conceptual model to reality.

*Let's talk about the “Arctic ice cap”.*

# [Arctic summer sea ice could disappear as early as 2035](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/arctic-summer-sea-ice-could-be-gone-by-2035)

***By the time a current toddler graduates from high school, summer sea ice in the high North could be a thing of the past.***

Based on our conceptual model of the Climate System what does this fact tell us about the Earth’s Energy Balance Sheet?

**We know, that 80% of the Energy that the Earth captures from the Sun starts at the Equator.**

**We know, that this Energy moves through the oceans and the atmosphere FROM the equator towards the two poles.**

As it moves from the Equator to the Poles some of this energy is lost. 

It “bleeds” off into the friction of doing “work” like moving air and water. It gets lost into space from the atmosphere. 

It melts ice (about 2% of all the energy the earth receives annually is absorbed by melting ice and snow each year). 

At the end, the HEAT ENERGY that's left, winds up at the North Pole

The amount of ENERGY the Arctic receives from the Sun each year doesn't change. It's a CONSTANT based on the axial tilt of the Earth in relationship to the Sun.

So,

***If the Arctic sea ice is SHRINKING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is INCREASING. Indicating that the Earth is WARMING.***

***If the Arctic sea ice is GROWING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is DECLINING. Indicating that the Earth is COOLING.***

The Arctic sea ice is the “end point” of the Global Climate System. HEAT from the Sun starts at the Equator and, at the end of the complex workings of our climate system, what's left reaches the Arctic.

During the dark Winter months a lot of this heat energy will bleed away into space. If MORE heat is lost than arrives, the Earth is cooling and sea ice will form and grow. If LESS heat is lost than arrives, the Earth is warming and sea ice will melt and shrink.

# The Arctic Sea Ice is the “Temperature Gauge” of the Earth.

TuneGlum7903

I'm not sure how much difference the complete disappearance of the North Polar icecap will make at this point. Ice gets as cold as the environment in which it froze, and there's a lot of relatively warm slush up top at the moment, with hugely decreased albedo. What I mean to say is, open water or not, we're clearly screwed either way.

This is bad, very bad check out the volume http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20240816.png

Vlad_TheImpalla

Won’t be long now.. not good, bad even..

hannahbananaballs2

You know how a glass of ice water maintains a constant 32 degrees until the ice melts?  Guess what happens after the ice melts?

cassein

Anyone have prior years of this? It looks bad yeah. BOE next El Niño? :( we’re all gonna starve.

Abnormally warm water vapour and Boreal wildfire ash being thrown into the higher latitudes among an exhaustive list of other things is turning the arctic into a proverbial melting pot it seems. Who could have possibly foreseen this happening? We've locked in our own great filter for future generations and nothing is going to stop the next hundred thousand years from being intolerable for whoever gets the unfortunate privilege of witnessing it.

rktice

Everyone will remember their last polar vortex once there's no pole left. This breaks my heart

GlooBoots

Fantastic news!  This is going to open up the North Sea route for more trade!

You say the oceans rising, like I give a shit.
You say the whole worlds ending, honey it already did.
You’re not going to slow it, heaven knows you’ve tried.

Got it? Good, now get inside.

🎶🎶

Chill_Panda

Literally my reaction this morning:  
https://i.imgur.com/ULqvbTp.png

Yebi

shit man check out the comparison to the median edge

anarchist_person1

ebostic94

I mean I like slush in the summer but I dont think we can eat all that between us you guys

Beatnuki

Side question: How does everyone deal with the personal distress? I am in a constant state of anxiety over this. Anyone else?

OJJhara

&gt;MISSING 

I was just listening to this: [Radiohead - Everything In Its Right Place (Maxi Degrassi Edit) - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGx1nQ0HdLw) which made for a nice contrast. 

The light blue area looks somewhat homogeneous. I wonder if that means that it will melt fast, like in one heatwave.

dumnezero

b_brilliant123

Are you sure? Did you stick your tongue on it?

Hopefully it’s just the first few inches of the surface that slush and then below it is still some ice to give us more time. Either way. Damn.

gangstasadvocate

Climate reanalyser is still showing very slightly above 2019 coverage and equal to 2023. Note though, that these are record lows. This is a measurement of coverage rather than thickness so, If I was a betting man, I would, as the ice is mainly slush, expect rapid melting and open water. The often mentioned blue ocean event maybe nigh.

CatchaRainbow

thr0wnb0ne

Clear blue oceans, coming soon to enjoy...

nablaCat

Wow...what's really crazy is I've been predicting 2024 for a BOE...just a year or 2 off lol

S1ckn4sty44

Beautiful_Pool_41

It has often done this since the early 2000's. It won't all be gone this year either but we could get close to the record melt levels. The melting season is tapering out though so even that is a bit unlikely now.

Elukka

Only reason to continue to stick around is to witness this first hand and the chain reactions that are triggered afterwards...and if the r!ch aren't being eaten by that point, then what are we even doing...

loco500

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute writes that there is now also a marine heat wave outside northern Norway and in larger parts of the Barents Sea.

kystgeit

Go go Henry Hudson. The fabled Northwest Passage is now a reality!

Of course Russia will finally get their warm water ports they've lusted after for centuries.

HotKarl_Marx

And the shipping industry is celebrating about the new ability to avoid the Panama Canal... 


Ya. A balanced ecosystem.. who needs that? Not like extreme weather is a thing. 😂

Last week it was 40C (104F) in Churchill Falls, near the Arctic Circle. 

Everything's fine folks. Nothing to see here.

JungBag

I've been using this data source for years: [https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arc\_list\_arcticictn.html#202008](https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arc_list_arcticictn.html#202008)

It's a good way to get an idea of how thick the ice sheet is.

Will it be BOE first, or AMOC first? Place your bets in the climate casino!

Hilda-Ashe

From a climate modeling perspective, the question is whether this "slushification" of the North Pole is resulting in a change in albedo. the fraction of light that a surface reflects.  If the albedo declines, that patch of the Earth absorbs more solar radiation.  The albedo of the ocean is 0.1, so the ocean absorbs 90% of all solar radiation that impacts it.  The albedo of ice ranges from 0.6 to 0.9, depending on how much sooty air pollution is mixed in and how icy slushy it is.  Fresh snow is 0.9.  Slushy snow is 0.4.  Dirty slushy snow is 0.2.  During the two summer months when the sun shines 24/7 on the North Pole, a fully exposed arctic circle would absorb as much solar radiation as a latitude of 40 degrees N  (Death Valley is at 36 degrees N) if the albedo was the same.  But the albedo of Death Valley is around 0.4, equivalent to slushy snow!  "The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions in the world and is heating more than twice the global average. The extreme temperature and ongoing climate change prompted a WMO panel of experts to add a new climate category “highest recorded temperature at or north of 66.5⁰, the Arctic Circle” to its international Archive of Weather and Climate Extremes."  Some researchers have suggested that once the North Pole is ice free in mid-June, the heat absorbed will be so great that the ice cap won't re-form until CO2 levels dramatically drop (hysteresis: CO2 would have to drop to a level well below what they currently are to cause ice to once again appear on the North Pole.)  This implies that the planet will be absorbing substantially more solar radiation once the North Pole becomes ice-free.  

This will a boon for A/C manufacturing companies, hammer economies that rely on outdoor workers to grow food, mine minerals, construct buildings, etc., and cause many elderly on fixed income to struggle mightily to pay for keeping themselves cool enough for sleep in the summer and to pay for food.

Zealousideal-Plum823

The latent heat of fusion.Will kick some serious ass.

Fearless-Temporary29

That’s shocking. 80 degrees in the middle of the North Atlantic in spring. I wonder what the standard deviations are. Probably like 7 or something insane.

Almost worse than all the destruction is the fact that we cant go through this together. There’s no collective therapy to help us go through this. The ones aware of what’s happening have to just silently sit in anguish and hope that we read something in some book somewhere that gives us peace. So it goes haha. Or try to talk about it and get pitied and dismissed. I find it exceptionally lonely

maoterracottasoldier

Human-caused climate change boosted Iceland and Greenland’s temperatures by several degrees during a record-setting May heat wave, raising concerns about the far-reaching implications melting Arctic ice has for weather around the world, scientists said in an analysis released Wednesday.

The Greenland ice sheet melted many times faster than normal during the heat wave, according to the analysis by World Weather Attribution.

Parts of Iceland saw temperatures more than 10°C (18 °F) above average, and the country set a record for its warmest temperature in May when Egilsstadir Airport hit 26.6°C (79.8 F) on May 15.

Wagamaga

I remember a heat wave in Canada a few years ago. It was 39C just below the border with the north west territories. Its not good.

MapleMapleHockeyStk

Coolenough-to

Call it Greenlantis and get it over with.

Icy-Zookeepergame754

This is the surface mass balance and not total mass balance. All this graph is showing is that the difference between snowfall and run off has been stable. Practically speaking this gives very little insight on total ice mass as most ice is lost on the bottom of ice sheets rather than the surface.

TankyRo

This is cherry picked data. The long term trend is one of largescale ice loss. 

https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2023/greenland-ice-sheet-2023/

Agentbasedmodel

It's been a while. You still don't get it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/climateskeptics/s/K1qucTZWkR

Vourgade

Sorry. Only normal if you ignore what the report actually says...

The chart shown in OP is about SMB - Surface Mass Balance. Only part to the TMB - Total Mass Balance of Greenland. If you actually read the report you will see that the report says that the TMB is steadily dropping.

&gt;**Polar Portal Season Report 2024**

&gt;The 2023-24 season was characterised by significant fluctuations, with heavy snowfall in the winter and a high degree of melting in the summer. At the same time, 2024 was the 28th year in a row in which Greenland’s Ice Sheet lost more mass during the course of the melting season than it gained during the course of the winter. Furthermore, the sea ice hit the 13th lowest maximum extent and the 6th lowest minimum extent in 2024.  
(...)

&gt;**The overall picture of the Ice Sheet**

&gt;Data concerning the total mass balance of the Ice Sheet makes it possible to monitor the Ice Sheet’s overall “account” for growth and loss. The figures reveal that the year 2023-2024 once again saw a high loss of ice in the form of calving and sea melting, although these figures were lower than the previous five years. 

&gt;Greenland’s Ice Sheet lost 80 Gt of ice, which makes 2023 the 28th consecutive year in which the Ice Sheet lost more ice than it gained

WikiBox

Note also that it's not peer-reviewed, not published.

Quercus_

Oh good God.. 

The first point is that even during their alleged 20-year pause, sea ice is still declining throughout that entire 20-year period. 

They claim that the decline is not statistically distinguishable from zero through that 20 year period, and then go on to treat it as if it is zero. This is not valid. 

What they don't appear to test is whether that 20-year period is statistically different from the long-term rate of decline they're comparing it against.  That is, they don't demonstrate that there actually is any statistically significant change in the rate of sea ice loss for the last 20 years. 

Notice that because they have cherry picked that 20 years, they have to make a large statistical correction for multiple possible comparisons. You can't choose a period based on examination, and then apply statistics to it, without making what are typically pretty massive corrections to statistical significance based on the fact that you chose that period. 

There's probably more errors in that, I got fed up at that point and stopped reading.

“The Big Picture”:  
      
**NASA** — “September Arctic sea ice is now shrinking at a rate of 12.2% per decade, compared to its average extent during the period from 1981 to 2010” — NASA [interactive graphic](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/?intent=121) of Arctic annual September sea ice extent, 1980–2024.  
      
**NCEI NOAA** — This interactive [chart and table](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/sea-ice/N/9) show the Northern Hemisphere September monthly mean Sea Ice Extent in millions of square kilometers and millions of square miles during 1979-2024, with a trend of -13.62%, -0.76 million km^2 per decade.     
              
**NASA** — NASA, NSIDC Scientists Say Arctic Winter Sea Ice at [Record Low](https://www.nasa.gov/earth/arctic-winter-sea-ice-at-record-low/), Mar 27, 2025 — NASA animated [global maps](https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5099) show Arctic and Antarctic daily ice cover, April 25, 2023–April 27,  2025. NASA animated [graphic](https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5521) shows that for each year during November 1978–March 2025, “ice cover has declined at both poles, leading to a downward trend in the total ice cover over the entire planet. In February 2025, global ice fell to the smallest area ever recorded”:     
         
&gt;The reduction in ice in both polar regions has led to another milestone — the total amount of sea ice on the planet reached an all-time low. Globally, ice coverage in mid-February of this year declined by more than a million square miles (2.5 million square kilometers) from the average before 2010. Altogether, Earth is missing an area of sea ice large enough to cover the entire continental United States east of the Mississippi.   
         
**NSIDC** — Sea Ice Index Daily and Monthly Image [Viewer](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index) simultaneously shows on a map the boundaries of the Arctic and Antarctic daily sea ice extent and the daily sea ice concentration with a 1-day time lag, and the corresponding boundaries of the median ice edge during the long-term 30-year 1981-2010 climate period.  
         
**NSIDC** — Charctic interactive sea ice [graph](https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph) &gt; “[Opening the application directly](https://nsidc.org/data/tools/arctic-sea-ice-chart/) may give better results” — Daily Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers during January 1, 1979–April 27, 2025 (1-day time lag):  
           
&gt;6.903 million sq km — September 22, Arctic yearly minimum sea ice extent in 1979.  
    
&gt;4.280 million sq km — September 11, Arctic yearly minimum sea ice extent in 2024. Clicking the point on the plot line for September 11, 2024, opens a map that simultaneously shows the boundaries of the Arctic sea ice extent on Sep 11, 2024, and the boundaries of the  median ice edge for Sep 11 during the long-term 30-year climate period, 1981-2010.             
         
**NASA** — Animated [global map](https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5395/) of annual Arctic sea ice minimum area, 1979-2024, with graph — NASA  Scientific Visualization Studio, October 4, 2024.   
               
**PSC** — [Arctic Sea Ice Volume](https://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/) – Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington:  
                           
&gt;Fig. 1 [[Graphic](https://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png)] Arctic sea ice volume and trend from PIOMAS updated once a month. Daily Sea Ice volume anomalies for each day are computed relative to the 1979 to 2023 average for that day of the year. The trend for the period 1979–present [March 2025]  is shown in blue:     
           
&gt; -2.8 ± 1.0 [1000 km^3 / Decade] — Anomaly Trend   
                                       
&gt;Fig. 11 [[Graphic](https://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BannualVolumeTsCurrent.png)] – PIOMAS Annually Averaged Arctic Daily Sea Ice Volume, 1979–March 2025, 1000*km^3 (data: [text](https://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/PIOMAS.2sst.monthly.Current.v2.1.txt), [CSV](https://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/PIOMAS.monthly.Current.v2.1.csv)):        
            
&gt;25.4260 — 1979  
&gt;24.6814 — 1980  
&gt;22.4592 — 1990  
&gt;19.6673 — 2000   
&gt;14.5255 — 2010  
&gt;13.5218 — 2020  
&gt;13.6068 — 2024

Molire

Well the 2012 crash was way, way ahead of modeled estimates so that makes sense.

Taste_the__Rainbow

LOL, they left out the last 6 months

https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-march-2025

March 2025 is the lowest of all time on record for March of any year.

Edit:

Same for February https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-february-2025

and January https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-january-2025

and December https://climate.copernicus.eu/sea-ice-cover-december-2024

April looks to also be headed for a record low:

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-warmest-march-europe-and-lowest-arctic-winter-sea-ice. scroll down to Daily Arctic sea ice extent graph

Infamous_Employer_85

Question. They claim that melting ice caps would raise sea level….but when ice melts in a glass of water it doesn’t overflow. Doesn’t ice take up more space than water ?  If the ice melts that in the water, wouldn’t sea level drop, but the ice over land melts and subsequently evens it all out?  How much ice density over land vs in the water ??

moe_fun999

The Arctic region experienced unprecedented heat, with Greenland's ice melting 17 times faster, posing risks to global sea levels and climate stability.

Record Arctic Heat and Greenland Ice Melt in May 2025

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